Letter published in Nov. 1 New York Times from Janet E. Milne, professor and director of the Environmental Tax Policy Institute at Vermont Law School.
To The Left-Green Opponents of I-732: How Does It Feel?
The Friday-afternoon tweet from Greenwire nailed it: @Koch_Industries & @VanJones68 united in $$ battling Wash. state #carbontax measure.*
Though they could also have tweeted: Fossil-Fuel Right & Doctrinaire Left team up to battle Wash. state #carbontax measure.
The occasion was the news that Koch Industries just poured $50,000 into the coffers of the No On 732 forces. As everyone knows who wasn’t slumbering through the past two decades, the Hard Right takeover of Congress and dozens of statehouses and legislatures owes much to Koch Industries’ prolific bankrolling of reactionary candidates and lobby groups. Brothers Charles and David Koch are billionaires many times over, thanks to Koch Industries’ empire of pipelines, refineries, mines and wells that for generations have spewed carbon pollution into the atmosphere for free.
The Koch brothers are no dummies. They know what fellow fossil fuel exec Robert E. Murray told Kirk Johnson and Coral Davenport of The New York Times the other day: Passing I-732 to enact a carbon tax in Washington state could ignite a trend that “would eliminate the use of all fossil fuels.”
We at the Carbon Tax Center know it too. Which is why we’ve pulled out all the stops to educate Americans from Washington and beyond on the merits of that state’s carbon tax referendum and its potential to kick open the doors to national carbon taxing.
What’s been hard to fathom is the drumbeat from so-called left greens like visionary climate hawk and political activist Van Jones in opposition to the Nov. 8 ballot measure.
In the past two weeks we’ve had to contend with bizarro posts like “Here’s Why a Carbon Tax Helps Fossil Fuel Companies, Not the Environment” (an op-ed in AlterNet by Food & Water Watch) and “Why Exxon Loves the Carbon Tax—and Voters Should Not” (the same group’s op-ed in the ironically named Yes! magazine).
We responded to both last week — before today’s filing by No On 732 revealed that the Koch brothers are helping finance the opposition. Needless to say, only an ideologue could believe that Exxon’s once-a-year opining for hypothetical carbon taxes counts for more than $50,000 in Koch Brothers money against an actual one. (Click here to see the Koch contribution in the No On 732 list.) And sure enough, there was a lot more ideology than reason on display in a press event yesterday in which leading left greens inveighed against I-732.
We were allowed to listen in, but not to speak or ask a question. No transcript or audio has been made available, but here’s a sample of what we jotted down from speakers’ remarks. (Remember, they were addressing a carbon tax that has been meticulously designed to make Washington state taxes less regressive, primarily by dedicating the lion’s share of revenues to slice a full percentage point off the WA sales tax.)
You’re doing climate policy on the backs of the poor. — Van Jones, CEO of Green for All
A “neutral” 732 is perpetuating a one-sided economy of wealth and privilege. This is not a time for more tax cuts for corporations. — Heather McGhee, President, Demos
We stand united to defeat 732. We agree that climate policy cannot be promoted on the backs of the poor. — Mary Kay Henry, president, Service Employees International Union
We’re working on an alternative proposal. There are difficult legal questions. We’re beefing up the struggle after the election. — Rich Stolz, Director, One America
The last quote was in response to a reporter’s question about the alternative to I-732 that the left greens in Washington have talked about for years but never actually written. (Spoiler alert: writing the kind of ballot measure the left greens purport to want is devilishly difficult, in large part because the various groups have competing as well as overlapping interests, which are hard to reconcile. A revenue-neutral measure like I-732 didn’t face that problem.)
The untethering of those quoted statements from the reality of I-732 — a measure meticulously designed around a sales tax cut so low- and middle-income families aren’t harmed — is distressing to me personally. I’m a long-time admirer of every one of the organizations whose leaders I’ve just quoted. As I’ve said many times in this space, I’m a green and I’m on the left. I want to be partnering with Van and Heather and Mary Kay and Rich, not fighting them.
But a carbon tax is too central to climate, and climate is too central to all of our common struggles, for me to sit by and let ideology get in the way of sensible, pragmatic advocacy.
If “friends don’t let friends drive drunk,” it should also be true that activists don’t let activists drive policy from rhetoric.
To Van Jones et al., how does it feel to be on the same side as Charles and David Koch? That’s the corner you’ve painted yourselves into.
*Author’s Note: E&E News tweet lightly edited for clarity.
Fighting in the Trenches Doesn’t Excuse Ignorance on Carbon Taxes
A charitable way to view Food and Water Watch’s intemperate and misguided attacks this week on carbon taxing is that these energetic activists are so consumed with fighting fracking, pipelines and mines that they haven’t had time to absorb how carbon taxes can help dry up the “need” for new fossil fuel infrastructure.
An alternative take on their screeds in Yes Magazine and AlterNet is that FWW inhabits an ideological blind corner that sees carbon taxing as a neoliberal plot to undermine the climate movement rather than as a policy tool that can play a decisive part in keeping fossil fuels in the ground, forever.
Whichever, FWW’s case is toxic, simplistic and wrong. Toxic because its emergence in the home stretch of the carbon tax campaign in Washington state threatens to move critical Yes votes into the No camp on Nov. 8. Simplistic because the arguments suggest that FWW hasn’t grasped the ABC’s of carbon taxes. And wrong because the group’s criticisms of the British Columbia carbon tax — the Washington referendum’s political and policy template just across the border — are rife with errors.
Just look at the headlines of FWW’s op-eds.
“Here’s Why a Carbon Tax Helps Fossil Fuel Companies, Not the Environment” (FWW’s op-ed in AlterNet)
A carbon tax helps fossil fuel companies? Sure, like cigarette taxes help tobacco companies and sugary drink taxes help soda companies. Or taxes on bullets would help the makers of assault rifles. In real life, carbon taxes are a mortal threat to fossil fuel companies because they destroy demand for fossil fuels — both by shrinking end-user demand (as people drive less, businesses adopt energy-efficiency measures, etc.) and by helping renewables out-compete them.
“Why Exxon Loves the Carbon Tax—and Voters Should Not” (FWW’s op-ed in Yes! magazine)
Yes, from time to time Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson utters a positive word about carbon taxes — token ones that make for good p.r. but are 5-10 times smaller than those for which CTC and other carbon tax advocates campaign. Indeed, we’ve wondered if Exxon’s reputed support is a maneuver to turn naïve climate advocates against carbon taxing — “if Exxon wants it, it must be bad.” Fact is, Exxon doesn’t want robust carbon taxing; and even if it did, a policy should be judged on its merits, not by one of its putative supporters.
Left-leaning economists like Robert Reich, Joseph Stiglitz and Robert Frank support carbon taxes. So does Ralph Nader. So did Bernie Sanders, in his outspoken, unvarnished, way, throughout the Democratic Party primaries. How much is Exxon paying them?
Both FWW op-eds draw from the group’s new report, The British Columbia Carbon Tax: A Failed Experiment in Market-Based Solutions to Climate Change. The report is wrong from the title, down. (Hint: a carbon tax isn’t a market-based policy; see below.)
FWW tips its hand in its thumbnail for the report on its home page (you’ll need to page down 5-6 times). The “tag” for the report is “Pollution Trading.” FWW could have written “Potato Chip” and been more on point. Carbon taxes are direct charges on fossil fuels according to their carbon pollution content, period. They’re simple and transparent. Nothing is traded, which means no market.
Pollution trading, or cap-and-trade, “puts a price on carbon” via the back door — hiding the price, if you will, in carbon “permits” that are traded on pollution “markets.” CTC and other carbon tax advocates spent countless hours in 2007-2010 explaining why pollution trading was ill-suited for internalizing climate costs into the prices of fossil fuels, and exhorting big green groups like NRDC and EDF to back straight-up carbon taxes instead. (Our Web page delineating cap-and-trade’s drawbacks actually has “dead ends” in its URL.)
We’re well acquainted with emissions progress in British Columbia, from our December 2015 report, British Columbia’s Carbon Tax: By The Numbers. Sadly, the analytical criticisms of the British Columbia carbon tax in Food & Water Watch’s report don’t hold up any better than the rhetorical ones. Here’s a sampling.
Claim: “Taxed greenhouse gas emissions rose by a total of 4.3 percent between 2009 (the first full year that the tax was in place) and 2014. (FWW report, p. 4).”
Fact: A proper comparison must start in 2007, the last pre-tax year, or 2008, when the carbon tax took effect, on July 1. Using 2009 as a baseline is nonsensical since the tax had already gone into effect; it’s also biased on account of the 2009 recession (which FWW mistakenly located in 2008, see p. 2). For the record, BC 2014 emissions from fossil fuel combustion of 43,940 kilotonnes of CO2 were 1 percent less than emissions of 44,363 kT in 2007 and 44,244 kT in 2008. (See methodological note at end.)
British Columbia’s GDP has grown considerably from 2008, creating the emissions pull that tends to accompany economic activity. Normalized per unit of GDP, 2014 emissions were down by 12% from 2008 and by 11% from 2009. While that’s not enough, it’s around what one would expect from a “starter” carbon tax such as BC’s.
Claim: “British Columbia’s carbon tax failed to reach the reduction targets necessary to ensure a sustainable climate, demonstrating that carbon taxes are not a viable policy solution to climate change.” (FWW report, p. 2)
Fact: Straw-man alert! It’s true that BC’s carbon tax is too low by an order of magnitude to get “80 by 50” or similar deep cuts. Its value, and that of the similarly designed (though more aggressive) Washington state carbon tax proposal, is to establish the template of carbon taxes, particularly revenue-neutral ones, so that not just provinces or states but entire nations can put robust, briskly rising carbon taxes in place. Indeed, earlier this month PM Trudeau announced that all of Canada will take precisely that step, starting in 2018.
Claim: “A carbon tax is theoretically designed to raise the cost of greenhouse gas emissions, but if those costs are refunded it almost defeats the purpose. The price of climate change is only included at the point of emissions, but since it ultimately is returned to the companies and individuals, over time it may create little disincentive to pollute.” (FWW report, p. 3)
Fact: No, the revenues from the British Columbia carbon tax aren’t “refunded” or “returned,” they’re recycled on an economy-wide basis via tax cuts that are distributed to companies and individuals without regard to the amount of carbon tax they may have paid. This separation of revenue distributions (benefits) from carbon tax incidence (payments or costs) is fundamental to any “revenue-neutral” carbon tax, whether it’s one that primarily uses tax swaps such as BC’s or Washington’s proposed tax, or the “fee-and-dividend” model advocated by Citizens Climate Lobby. FWW’s miscomprehension on this basic point speaks volumes.
Fact: “Individuals ultimately shoulder the majority of the costs of the British Columbia carbon tax, and lower-income individuals . . . bear a disproportionate burden.” (FWW report, p. 8)
Comment: We labeled this point a fact because the first part is true. Individuals, as final consumers of virtually everything our economies produce, do bear the costs of carbon taxes. That’s unavoidable, and it’s also the point, as we’ve written countless times. That’s why it’s important that carbon taxes such as BC’s and Washington’s be revenue-neutral; it ensures that low-income families receive disproportionate shares of the tax reductions or dividend distributions and thus are kept whole despite higher energy prices.
Claim: “Despite significant volatility in U.S. gasoline prices in recent years, the total number of vehicle miles traveled and household car travel demand changed very little in response to price fluctuations. Without sufficient alternative transportation options, people will continue to drive their cars regardless of significant changes in gasoline prices.” (FWW report, p. 6)
Fact: The supposed price-inelasticity of energy demand has become an article of faith for many on the political left — though whether it preceded or post-rationalized a distaste for energy taxes is hard to say. I’ve studied the price sensitivity of energy demand for decades and written about it extensively, most recently here. I can report that while gasoline is the least price-elastic of fuels, it’s far from inelastic (in my linked post I report a U.S. gasoline price-elasticity of around -0.35). This shouldn’t be surprising, insofar as most automobile use in both the U.S. and Canada is for non-work trips, which on average have a high discretionary component.
There’s more, but you get the point. Lest my criticisms appear harsh, I note that I sought to engage FWW director Wenonah Hauter in a dialogue on carbon taxes last winter, after she published a letter in the New York Times disparaging the tax in British Columbia.
After one back-and-forth, I wrote again and closed as follows:
Wenonah, like you, I’ve been in the trenches fighting fossil fuels for a long time. We may have different ideas about how to get to the same goal, but I hope we can both pursue that goal without running at cross-purposes.
She never replied.
Addendum (Jan. 5, 2017): Several CTC supporters have drawn our attention to the assertion in FWW’s Failed Experiment report that from 2005 to 2013 emissions fell further in Ontario, which didn’t have a carbon-pricing system, than in British Columbia, which did. According to FWW, this shows that “mandatory replacement of fossil fuel energy plants with renewable, carbon-free forms of energy can rapidly and permanently reverse emissions trends.” Not quite. Ontario had low-hanging fruit that BC lacked: coal-fired electricity generation. And what allowed Ontario to eliminate coal-fired generation and put up impressive carbon-reduction numbers was increased output from its nuclear power plants: from 2003 to 2013, coal-fired electricity generation fell by 38 billion kWh while nuclear output rose by 30 billion as the nukes were expensively “refurbished.” Carbon-free, yes, but not the “renewable” energy FWW would like to credit.
Methodological note: our calculations here, which add 2014 to the data in our year-ago report, exclude emissions from Public Electricity and Heat Production. This category — essentially electricity generation from burning fossil fuels — accounts for just 2 percent of BC emissions from fuel combustion but for nearly 20 percent in the rest of Canada. More importantly, that sector constitutes most of the “low-hanging fruit” for reducing carbon emissions, since electricity generation affords more opportunities for quickly and easily substituting low-carbon supply than any other major sector. Eliminating this category enabled us to compare changes in emissions over time — the heart of our analysis — on an equal basis between BC and the rest of Canada.
Washington State’s I-732: A Climate Measure for the Society We Have
Paul Goodman, a mid-century American apostle of transformational change, entitled a collection of his letters, “The society I live in is mine.” With apologies to Paul, whose unsparing but inspiring critiques of U.S. corporate government helped shape my generation of radical activists, I’m here to say that the Washington state carbon tax initiative, I-732, is the perfect climate measure for the society we have.
I thought of Goodman today as I read the remarkable “Open Letter from the Millennial Leaders of Carbon Washington and the Yes-on-732 Campaign” to the green establishment leaders who are silent or oppositional on the initiative. Paul was an unabashed champion of youth and an instinctive foe of the old guard, most notably in his best-known book, Growing Up Absurd.
I believe Goodman, renowned for speaking directly, would have relished the millennials’ plain-spoken courage in calling out their heroes’ “deafening silence” on I-732. Devoted to participatory democracy, he would have applauded the millennials’ insistence that the climate crisis “belongs to more than just a handful of non-profit gatekeepers to decide what should be politically realistic and what isn’t.”
I also think that Goodman, a champion of rigor, would have pounced on the insubstantial arguments made by I-732’s “green” opponents, corrected their errors, and alerted them to the absurdity of climate advocates opposing a carbon tax that has advanced to an actual ballot proposition.
Here’s one of those arguments. It’s the first of three bullet points in the message by Washington Conservation Voters telling their members and supporters to vote No:
[I-732] relies solely on economic signals to drive down emissions, which allows all polluters to pay to continue to pollute instead of reducing emissions. Without a carbon cap, we can’t ensure that we will achieve the pollution reductions that are required in state law, but are currently unenforced.
Everything in that paragraph is correct. And all of it is utterly beside the point.
Yes, Initiative 732 relies solely on economic signals to drive down emissions of carbon dioxide. That’s by design. Those signals — higher market prices of fossil fuels — are essential to solve or at least massively shrink the climate crisis. Without them, any climate policy, including the “investment” approach favored by WCV and other green groups opposing or abstaining on I-732, will fall woefully short.
Make no mistake, Carbon Washington, the upstart group that drafted Initiative 732 last year and obtained hundreds of thousands of qualifying signatures to put it on the Nov. 8 ballot, dearly wants society to invest in massive weatherization and solarization of buildings, remediation of polluted communities, better urban and suburban transit, and the like.
So do I. In fact, my other “day job,” aside from running the Carbon Tax Center, is mostly fighting for those very investments and policies in New York City, where I live and work.
Either Carbon Washington or I could have written the first part of WCV’s second bullet:
To reduce carbon emissions quickly, we must not only decrease our use of fossil fuels, we must also rapidly increase our use of clean energy, including solar and wind power and the electrification of transportation. This is the only way for us to transition to a low-carbon economy and significantly decrease our use of fossil fuels.
Well, that transition is precisely what carbon taxes can spark. Raising the prices that businesses and households alike face for coal, oil and gas and for the goods and services manufactured from them will accelerate the society-wide switch to clean energy. Conversely, without those higher fossil fuel prices, solar and wind and electric vehicles and transit will forever be competing with one hand tied behind their backs. Sure, they’ll advance, but not nearly fast and widely enough to push out fossil fuels on the scale our climate requires.
I readily admit — and I’ll wager that Carbon WA will admit as well — that by itself the I-732 carbon tax won’t effectuate that transition either. The tax level specified in the initiative, essentially $25/ton of CO2 after two years, then rising 3.5% a year above general inflation, is too low for that. But that too is by design: the USA’s first statewide carbon tax can’t be super-steep, else industry and agriculture could be hampered vis-à-vis neighboring states, a prospect that would forestall approval by either voters or the legislature.
Rather, the Washington carbon tax is intended as proof of concept. Once a carbon tax has been established in one state, it can be adopted by others, creating a critical mass of political acceptance, demonstrating success in driving down emissions, and disarming the negative arguments on effectiveness, equity and overall feasibility that have stood in the way of a national tax on carbon emissions.
Moreover, as I argued recently, the emerging possibility of a “wave” election transforming the power dynamics in Congress creates a surprise bonus opportunity, in which winning a carbon tax next month in just one state could give tremendous momentum to carbon tax proposals at the federal level.
Even without a Democratic takeover of one or both houses of Congress, the national and global perspective completely moots the insular one inherent in WCV’s complaint that I-732 “can’t ensure that we will achieve the pollution reductions that are required in state law.” Whether or not the particular carbon tax on the Nov. 8 state ballot lets Washington meet those targets is dwarfed by the potential of the carbon tax template to go viral nationally and internationally.
But perhaps the most telltale confusion in that first WCV bullet point is the charge that I-732 “allows all polluters to pay to continue to pollute instead of reducing emissions.” As the saying goes, that’s a feature of carbon-taxing, or indeed any carbon pricing system, not a bug.
Here’s the thing, or two things: first, in our society, polluters get to choose to pollute; what I-732 does is to finally make polluters pay to do so; second, polluters’ choices — and whether we like it or not, “polluters” means all of us who press a gas pedal or turn on a switch as well as the corporate bosses atop the system that limits our agency to choose — are affected by prices.
Every day, in Washington state alone, millions of decisions are made, some almost microscopic (how fast to accelerate up that hill; whether to drive to the nearby mall or the distant one) and some momentous (Boeing’s design and material selections for future aircraft; how it powers its factories) that together determine energy demand and fuel choice and, thus, carbon emissions.
As much as we might wish otherwise, we as a society can’t take away the freedom to make those choices. We can constrain some choices through regulations such as CAFÉ and appliance standards and building codes and the like. We can expand choice through judicious planning. But regulations and planning by their nature can only address one facet of the many-sided carbon equation. A carbon tax, in contrast, operates on every side. (For more on this point, please download and read our 2014 comments to the Senate Finance Committee on energy subsidies vs. taxes.)
We could conjure Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” if the right wing hadn’t co-opted it to prop up its laissez-faire ideology. Let’s say instead that the tax on carbon pollution embodied by I-732 is neither an upending of our market system nor the “clever tinkering with market forces” alleged by an environmental-justice opponent, but an overdue and essential correction — a way to enable markets to finally tell the truth about what fossil-fuel burning is doing to our climate.
The final point to address here is Washington Conservation Voters’ objection to I-732’s allocation of the carbon tax revenues:
Unfortunately, [I-]732 devotes the revenue created by the initiative on tax cuts, instead of strategically reinvesting in clean energy to accelerate our transition away from fossil fuels and fund an equitable transition for workers and disadvantaged communities.
True again, but just a sliver of the whole truth. “Tax cuts” conjures giveaways to the wealthy, but I-732 is the opposite. It applies most of the carbon tax revenues to cutting the state sales tax, a regressive tax like no other that for decades has slammed Washington’s poorest households and communities. The percentage point cut in that tax, to 5.5% from the current 6.5%, allows the carbon tax to yield a net financial gain for most families in the bottom half.
Imagine if WCV had written the revenue-treatment provisions of I-732 to “reinvest [the carbon tax dollars] in clean energy” and “fund an equitable transition for workers and disadvantaged communities.” Without a doubt, the fossil fuel interests would have blasted the initiative for compounding the financial strains already faced by Washington low- and middle-income families . . . and they would have been right. Branded, correctly, as income-regressive, the carbon tax would have been consigned to a resounding defeat.
Making the carbon tax income-progressive, and not the shibboleth of “appealing to Republicans,” is the main reason Carbon Washington designed Initiative 732 to be revenue-neutral. But that decision has laid bare real fault lines in the environmental community, particularly on energy prices.
Green opponents of I-732 appear to believe that we — Washington, the United States, the world — can craft policies to quickly abandon carbon fuels without rapidly raising their market prices; or that the right energy-investment programs will offset the impacts of those price rises on vulnerable households and communities (a category that since the onset of the financial crisis has grown to encompass perhaps two-thirds of U.S. families).
Proponents believe, as I do, that rapidly raising the market prices of fossil fuels is essential, and that the only sure way to protect households and communities financially is to return the revenues in some progressive fashion. Nationally, that could be via the “dividend” approach propounded by Citizens Climate Lobby. That is probably not practicable for individual state carbon taxes, however, and I believe Carbon WA made the right call to swap out the revenue by cutting the sales tax.
In either case, the carbon reductions sacrificed by returning instead of investing revenue can be recouped by raising the carbon tax rate briskly year after year — a policy that can be enacted if and only if a clear majority of households are made better off or at least kept whole through revenue return.
In closing, let me affirm that I’m a man of the Left. Like Paul Goodman, whom I cited at the top, I’m suspicious of all powerful organizations, private or public. Nevertheless I firmly believe in the capacity of government to do good. If enough other citizens felt the same way, I might well be calling for the investment program that LCV says it wants. Heck, if a majority believed as I do, our country wouldn’t have one of the industrialized world’s most unequal distributions of income and wealth. Instead we would have a social system to support families that stood to lose more from rising fuel prices than they would gain from energy savings.
But we don’t live in that kind of society. We can fight for it, as I and many others in the climate movement do. But we can’t design climate policy for a society we don’t yet have. To turn away from the most potent climate policy instrument we have — one that is now, almost miraculously, being put before the voters of an entire state — would be sheer folly.
Click here for more on I-732, including links to the best and most recent press coverage.
The Political Meltdown That Could Save The Climate
Anyone with a lit screen knows by now that shell-shocked Republicans are abandoning the Trump ship in droves. As the exodus threatens to become a stampede, with a longtime GOP operative declaring that “The Republican Party is caught in a theater fire; people are just running to different exits as fast as they can,” talk of election “win probabilities” is pivoting from the presidential race to Congress.
A Trump collapse could give Democrats back the House,” reported Vox this weekend, citing analysis that a mere six-point Clinton plurality could swing the 31 needed seats in its wake. While that’s probably over-optimistic, a more decisive margin over Trump might do the trick.
The ramifications for climate could be huge: Democratic control of both the White House and Congress clears a path for a federal carbon tax without having to somehow vault over GOP denialists. Which could make next month’s ballot referendum in Washington state, Initiative 732, even more momentous. Enacting the country’s first carbon tax wouldn’t just produce a template for other states; it could spark national legislation establishing a U.S. tax on carbon emissions, perhaps as early as 2017.
Let’s be clear: a U.S. carbon tax isn’t just helpful climate policy. It’s the core of any program for shrinking carbon emissions massively, relentlessly and globally. Only a briskly rising carbon tax rewards and thus bends every investment, decision and behavior toward less use of fossil fuels. Only a carbon tax can be replicated so the world’s nations can meet the commitments they made in Paris a year ago and ratified last month. And only a carbon tax produces revenues that can protect low- and middle-income families as fossil fuel prices rise — as they must to blow open the gates to the renewables-and-efficiency revolution at full scale.
The holistic power of carbon taxing is what motivated the grassroots organizers at an upstart group called Carbon Washington to crisscross the state last year and collect the 350,000 signatures that placed “I-732” on the Nov. 8 ballot. It’s also what makes it vexing that many green groups in the state have refrained from supporting I-732. Some are actively opposing it.
The schism has been covered widely (and insightfully) in recent weeks, most recently by Natasha Geiling in Think Progress. “Opposition to Washington’s historic carbon tax initiative is coming from the unlikeliest of sources,” reads her headline, which then asks, “It’s the only carbon tax on the ballot in the country. So why are some environmental groups fighting it?”
The answers are many. Carbon WA drew up I-732 without consulting fully with the entire spectrum of climate advocates. The design of its carbon tax is more attuned to the market than to government, with the carbon revenues “returned” to households (see graphic) rather than invested directly in clean energy and community remediation. And perhaps the in-state green groups are guided more by local and state concerns while Carbon WA set its sights nationally and globally.
Those points can be parsed endlessly. But the central fact for climate, which the Republican implosion is making more salient daily, is that the fissure in Washington state threatens to sink the initiative and botch our chance to put a carbon tax on the national legislative agenda starting months from now. Polling on I-732 suggests that a deficit in August may have flipped into a slight plus, but a fifth of voters are still undecided, and disunity among climate advocates makes it tougher to seal the deal.
There’s no second chance at this in the Evergreen State. Washington’s legislature has shown no appetite for a carbon tax, and a new referendum can’t get on the ballot until 2018. Organizing in other states has fallen short as well. Whether we like it or not – and the economist in me makes me a big fan – I-732 is the only game going.
The U.S. elections will doubtless take further twists in the final four weeks, but the possibility of debating and actually winning a national carbon tax is suddenly, miraculously upon us. The referendum in Washington state is going to function as the first big test. Whatever its imperfections, the climate movement’s greatest imperative must be to come together and pass I-732.
There is no hiding from climate change. It is real and it is everywhere. We cannot undo the last 10 years of inaction. What we can do is make a real and honest effort—today and every day—to protect the health of our environment, and with it, the health of all Canadians.”
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, in his Oct 3 address to Parliament in which he proposed a national carbon tax to start in 2018, quoted in Associated Press story posted later that day by Rob Gillies, Trudeau says Canada to implement carbon tax.
A Way to Expand the Carbon Dividend Tent
Should undocumented immigrants be entitled to the same regular payments that legal U.S. residents would receive under the fee-and-dividend form of a carbon tax? How would the payments be administered to people with little or no official status?
These are no small questions, given that as many as 12 million undocumented immigrants live within our borders, with the vast majority facing huge economic and social challenges. That’s why we at the Carbon Tax Center are intrigued by a new development in California, home to an estimated 2 million undocumented immigrants and a perennial incubator of innovative social and environmental policies.
The New York Times reported last week that California officials have petitioned the Obama administration to let undocumented immigrants purchase health insurance on the state’s public exchange. A bill signed into law in June by Gov. Jerry Brown directed the officials to seek a “state innovation waiver” under Section 1332 of the Affordable Care Act that lets local governments adopt alternative coverage strategies that don’t undermine the ACA’s cost-containment goals, according to The Hill newspaper.
With Republicans ready to pounce on any linkage of “Obamacare” with “illegal,” the White House may well turn a deaf ear to the request this fall. But a post-election Democratic administration should have no such qualms. Granting the waiver could be a transitional step that helps legitimize the status of undocumented immigrants and brings them closer to the federal apparatus that would issue the carbon dividends.
Winning access to California’s healthcare exchange wouldn’t mark the first admission of undocumented immigrants into government-administered systems. A dozen states and the District of Columbia already allow people residing here without papers to apply for and obtain driver’s licenses, according to the Website ProCon. But opening up a second front via the Affordable Care Act could help normalize the status of undocumented immigrants and eventually help fulfill pledges from advocates that a fee-and-dividend carbon tax will lift up rather than burden the most vulnerable among us.
In a post last week on Yale Environment 360, renowned climate advocate Bill McKibben coupled praise for fee-and-dividend with this warning:
[The dividends] shouldn’t overlook the estimated nearly 12 million undocumented Americans who contribute to the economy — and cause far less than their proportional share of emissions. Environmental justice would mean a truly “fair” system [that] compensated them for that history; it would also require policies to make sure that carbon pricing doesn’t perpetuate toxic “hot spots” in poor communities as companies look for least-cost ways to deal with the new reality.
We responded to Bill’s “hot spots” concern last week in our post, Carbon Tax Can Be a Remedy for Toxic Hot Spots. His fears that undocumented immigrants could be declared ineligible for the carbon dividends are harder to dispel, especially at a time much of the citizenry seems consumed with xenophobic rage.
That is why we’ll be watching what happens with California’s petition closely. Any policy action with even a chance of widening the dividend tent to include everyone living in the U.S. should be applauded. In an encouraging sign, the New York Times endorsed the petition in an editorial over the weekend.
If California’s petition to open its healthcare exchange to all proves successful, it could become an important instance in which social and economic fairness aligned with climate justice. And it would pave the path for a more equitable and inclusive fee-and-dividend carbon tax.
Carbon Tax Can Be a Remedy for Toxic Hot Spots
Thanks to the environmental justice movement, we know that big carbon emitters like power plants and oil refineries are disproportionately sited in poor and predominantly people of color communities. EJ pioneers like Robert Bullard and the Environmental Justice Resource Network began documenting this painful truth decades ago, and it continues to animate the EJ and climate justice movements.
So it’s not altogether surprising if, from time to time, concern is voiced that polluting companies will respond to carbon taxes by curbing carbon pollution elsewhere rather than in frontline communities like blighted urban neighborhoods, Appalachian hollows, or Native peoples’ lands. The pioneering climate activist Bill McKibben raised that possibility yesterday in a post on Yale Environment 360:
Environmental justice [in carbon taxing] would also require policies to make sure that carbon pricing doesn’t perpetuate toxic “hot spots” in poor communities as companies look for least-cost ways to deal with the new reality [in which carbon emitters now pay to dump into the atmosphere].
Not for the first time, we wrestled with that scenario overnight. And we have to report that we can’t picture any credible circumstance in which a carbon tax would lead to emissions lock-in in certain communities. Our conclusion arises from the fact that a carbon tax, by its nature, exacts a cost for each and every squandered opportunity to curtail carbon emissions. A company that perpetuated toxic hot spots in poor communities would incur costs that would weaken and might even destroy its bottom line.
Consider an oil company that owns and operates 5 refineries in poor and/or minority communities and 5 in other locales. Under a carbon tax, any change in equipment or procedures that reduces carbon emissions at any of the 10 refineries reduces the company’s carbon tax bill. That makes it virtually certain that all 10 refineries will undergo some change leading to lower emissions.
Without knowing details on the 10 refineries, we can’t predict which changes the tax will stimulate at each, and how much each refinery’s emissions will go down vis-à-vis the others. It’s possible that logistical considerations would push the company to concentrate its reduction effort at its 5 “other” sites. But we can say with virtual certainty that no refinery will add to its emissions on account of the carbon tax.
Think of it this way: Each facility now has an array of potential capital and operating opportunities for reducing emissions. Some don’t “pencil out” today but will as the carbon tax kicks in. But why would emissions-increasing measures be taken up due to the tax, when all of the tax incentive goes in the opposite (emissions-reducing) direction?
Carbon taxing isn’t a zero-sum game. Charging for emissions opens up opportunities to cut emissions everywhere, simultaneously. The choice facing headquarters isn’t to pit potential reductions from Refineries 1-5 against reductions from Refineries 6-10, but to max out on the new opportunities to cut costs presented by the carbon tax by modifying (and possibly shrinking, as demand drops) Refineries 1 through 10.
To repeat: under a carbon tax, every pound or ton of CO2 eliminated from the waste stream yields equal savings. With no cap to game by manipulating emissions, every reduction is rewarded immediately and equally.
The vigilance by environmental-climate justice campaigners against policies that could lock in toxic hot spots can be traced in part to mainstream environmentalists’ push for carbon cap-and-trade legislation a decade ago. The Waxman-Markey bill that passed the House before dying in the Senate would have allowed U.S. polluters “to offshore” some emission cuts (e.g., by booking CO2 reductions from planting tropical tree plantations) instead of cutting their domestic emissions. That loophole was appalling and it tarnished the bill; but offsets have never been included in proposed carbon tax legislation.
For the record, other concerns raised in McKibben’s post weigh heavily here at CTC, including whether and how a carbon fee-and-dividend system would return revenues to “the estimated nearly 12 million undocumented Americans who contribute to the economy.” We agree that undocumented workers should receive a fair share of the revenue proceeds from carbon-taxing, and it’s incumbent on us carbon-tax proponents to come up with an ironclad way to ensure that.
Let’s also acknowledge that the frontline communities that have suffered historically and disproportionately from toxic emissions that invariably “co-pollute” with CO2 deserve to be compensated beyond the universal fee-and-dividend monthly check. But what if a revenue-neutral carbon tax like fee-and-dividend is the only approach with political legs to actually pass Congress sometime down the road? Given that fee-and-dividend is income-progressive (poor households get more in dividend checks than they spend for costlier energy) and will cut emissions across the board, including in frontline communities, doesn’t it merit support from EJ advocates, despite its limitations?
In short, we agree with Bill that “most of the damage from both climate change and air pollution has fallen on poor people, people of color, and Native nations, both in our country and around our world.” But it’s a stretch too far to say that the potential remedy of carbon dividends “come[s] with [an] obvious moral and intellectual flaw.”
To sum up: the carbon-tax “flaw” of locking in carbon hot spots isn’t well-founded. But the flaw of excluding undocumented Americans from the carbon dividends can and should be addressed and fixed.
It may be that the surest way to do that is for members of frontline communities to assume leadership positions in the carbon tax effort. What are the best ways to encourage and make that leadership possible?
If she beats climate-denier Donald Trump on Election Day . . . Clinton will not have the luxury of spending four or eight years taking baby steps toward carbon reduction.”
Nothing to Lose: A President Clinton Should Take Aggressive Climate Action, by David Atkins, in American Prospect, Sept. 12.
Berkeley’s soda tax works. Here’s why that matters.
A tax on sugary soft drinks in Berkeley, CA is cutting soda consumption, according to a new study. Should climate advocates care?
Absolutely. The study offers powerful real-world support for the economic principles underlying the idea that carbon taxes can and will cut use of carbon-based fossil fuels.
The soda study was conducted by five health specialists at the University of California’s Berkeley campus and a biostatistician-epidemiologist at U-C San Francisco. The study team distilled their findings in an article in the American Journal of Public Health this month, and last week the New York Times’ “Upshot” column reported on it under the headline, “More Evidence That Soda Taxes Cut Soda Drinking.”
Here’s the Times’ lede:
It may seem obvious that taxing sugary drinks causes people to drink less of them. But that’s actually controversial. Now a new study out of Berkeley, Calif., adds to the evidence that our intuition is right.
Berkeley’s fee on sugary soft drinks, the first in the U.S., was approved in a November 2014 referendum and took effect in March 2015. It charges distributors a penny per ounce of drink on so-called sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). Thus, a 12-oz. soda can or bottle is taxed 12 cents, though not all of the fee is passed along in the retail price. In earlier research the study team estimated that for sodas, 69% of the penny-an-ounce tax is passed through as higher retail prices, on average; whereas for all SSBs, including energy, sports, and fruit-flavored drinks along with sweetened water, coffee and tea, as well as soda, the pass-through average is 47%.
The U-C study measured changes in beverage consumption in low-income neighborhoods as of July 2015, eight months after the vote and four months after implementation. Similar districts in nearby Oakland and San Francisco were used as a control group. Data were drawn from in-person interviews with 990 people before the tax and 1,689 after.
Based on those surveys, the authors reported that consumption of SSBs decreased 21% in Berkeley and increased 4% in the comparison cities. Water consumption increased far more in Berkeley (+63%) than in the comparison cities (+19%). Both comparisons were statistically significant, signifying that the observed differences in beverage purchases between soda-taxing Berkeley and non-soda-taxing Oakland and SF are genuine and not a product of random chance.
As the Times’ Upshot piece suggests, the main takeaway is what some of us have known all along: raising the price of a good or activity leads people to demand and consume less of it. That’s the premise behind taxing carbon emissions. But the Berkeley study offers other lessons too:
- Just 2 percent of Berkeley residents said they bought sodas outside of the city to avoid the tax. Though a higher tax would likely raise the percentage, the propensity thus far to curb consumption rather than game the system is encouraging.
- Part of the reason for the steep (21%) drop in consumption of SSBs may be that “people became more aware of the health issue [from soda consumption] during the debate around the tax’s passage and the city’s efforts to discourage sugary drink consumption around the same time,” as the Times wrote. This demonstration of “tax salience” previously reported for British Columbia’s carbon tax confirms the merits of seeking a carbon price via a transparent fee or tax rather than by “hiding the price” through an opaque and convoluted cap-and-trade system.
- Berkeley residents didn’t need subsidies to raise their consumption of bottled water; the “price push” of costlier SSBs was sufficient. This finding lends support to making carbon taxes revenue-neutral (via tax swaps or dividends) rather than applying the funds to subsidize clean-energy measures like weatherization or solar installations.
As the Times notes, the Berkeley findings are consistent with research indicating that Mexico’s nationwide soda tax cut sales of sugary drinks among poor households by 17 percent after the first year. Next up, in January, is Philadelphia’s 1.5 cents per ounce soda tax, which passed the city council several months ago.
The parallels to carbon taxing aren’t perfect, of course. The benefits of reduced soda use — less obesity, diabetes and tooth decay — are considerably closer and more personal than the benefits of clean energy. That, along with the soda tax campaign’s intentionally combative framing of “Berkeley vs. Big Soda,” may account for the extremely strong price-elasticity — a value of (minus) 2 or more — indicated by the 21% drop in SSB consumption among the surveyed residents. In CTC’s carbon-tax model, we employ far lesser price-elasticities for electricity, gasoline and other fuels: between (minus) 0.35 and 0.70, reflecting the fact that energy and fuels are more deeply wired into our economy and our behavior than are soft drinks.
Rather than extrapolate directly from the Berkeley soda tax study results, it’s best to regard them as further confirmation of the precept that taxing “bads” is a direct and effective way to make them less prevalent.
The AJPH article, “Impact of the Berkeley Excise Tax on Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Consumption,” was published on August 23, 2016. Click here for the abstract. For those interested, we calculated the soda price-elasticity by applying an approximate price increase of 0.7 cents per ounce (based on the 69% average pass-through) to an estimated average base soda retail price of 5 cents per ounce. For a 14 percent price rise (0.7 divided by 5) to effect a 21% contraction in usage, the price-elasticity must be (minus) 1.8. [Let us know via comments if you’d like to see the math for that.] Higher elasticities would result from using the 25 percent consumption drop relative to the control cities, or from applying the lesser pass-through rates for non-soda SSB’s.
Addendum, March 7, 2017 (contributed by CTC intern Michael Kendall)
New data are in from Mexico and Philadelphia, with both jurisdictions affirming that taxing sodas and other sugary drinks reduces consumption. In 2015, Mexico’s second year with the tax, purchases of sweetened beverages continued to fall. A study published in Health Affairs in Feb. 2017 provided a widely reported update on the effect of Mexico’s sugar-sweetened beverage tax on beverage purchases between 2012 and 2015. In 2014 sales fell by 5.5 percent from 2013; the reduction from 2013 grew to 9.7 percent in 2015. The decreases were greatest among the poorest households.
Philadelphia’s tax on sugary drinks went into effect on Jan. 1, and evidence from the initial month points towards significant reductions in sales. Philadelphia supermarkets and beverage sellers are reporting 30-50 percent drops in January sales, though the media narrative is focusing on threatened reductions in workforces rather than reductions in purchases. (Google “Philly soda tax” to get a taste of these headlines.) What’s not yet clear is whether soda purchases have risen significantly outside city limits. We’re looking forward to February data from Philadelphia and we’ll be keeping an eye on similar soda taxes going into effect in San Francisco, Oakland, Boulder, and Albany.
Addendum, Jan. 14, 2017
A front-page New York Times story yesterday about heavy purchases of sodas and other sugary drinks by recipients of food stamps included this passage, near the end:
In 2014, a group of Stanford researchers studied 19,000 SNAP [Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program] participants and compared whether banning sugary drinks or incentivizing fruits and vegetables would affect obesity rates. The researchers found that the incentive program would not. But banning sugary drinks from SNAP, they said, “would be expected to significantly reduce obesity prevalence and Type 2 diabetes incidence, particularly among ages 18 to 65 and some racial and ethnic minorities.”
In other words, raising the price of sugary drinks (the effective result of making those drinks ineligible for SNAP purchases) would be more effective in curbing use than subsidizing alternatives. That’s the carbon tax paradigm, in so many words: Making the “bad” (fossil fuel use) more costly through carbon taxes is more effective than lowering the price of alternatives to fossil fuels through subsidies.
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